He warns, however, that due to The Federal Reserve's extreme monetary policy, "the prospective return of asset classes is very narrow," with expected returns for equities of "only about 4 percent."
This is a problem, he explains, as monetary policy relies on that transmission mechanism of apparent wealth creation to keep the dream alive.
While he believes in the short-term, the US economy can maintain stability (not commenting on the market per se), his "biggest concern is when the next downturn comes in 1-2 years," the central bank must be on the 'tighter' side of market expectations to be capable of providing its life-giving elixir once again.
Nonetheless, Dalio sums it up by reminding ... "There is always a downturn."
Today is Yom Kippur, one of the holiest days of the year for Jews (and a day where many choose not to eat or drink in atonement for their sins of the prior year). In other words, this is pretty much the only day someone wishes they were eating matzoh on Passover.
Happy New Year to my Jewish friends!
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
The "worry" is that this move is the beginning of a new bearish trend ... and the long-term moving average is seen as the new resistance level.
So far this year, small-cap stocks have underperformed their larger counterparts. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is down almost 3% while the S&P 500 has gained over 7%.
Moreover, the small-cap index has been weakening and is off almost 7% from its all-time high set at the start of July, while the large companies in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have been hitting new highs.
The main issue is that small caps are under-performing and traders wonder what that says about the strength and breadth of the recent rally.
Nevertheless, the last time the Russell 2000 formed a death cross in July 2012, no significant sell-off followed as the index recovered and continued an uptrend. My guess is that this pattern would get far less media attention if it was named "Phlarg" or a "50/200 Crossover".
These arethe types of "early warning signs" you should watch. However, they are just early warning signs ... until they prove themselves to be more.
Everything you ask Google sounds a lot stupider when you actually ask Google.
Imagine how many people's Google search history is littered with typos, questionable queries, embarrassing visits to malware-infected websites, porn, Facebook, porn, Facebook, basic math questions a 6-year-old would know, juvenile jokes and so forth.
Now imagine if, in order to do those searches on Google, you had to talk to a real life person?
College Humor has posted a series of videos showing what it would be like if Google was just some guy in an office answering all of your life's questions?
It may be frustrating to be Google ... but it is so much more embarrassing to be ourselves.
A new entry to the Hype Cycle this year is “data science,” projected to reach the plateau in 2 to 5 years. It’s more a discipline for dealing with big data then a specific technology or set of technologies, so it’s interesting to note that big data is still considered by Gartner to be 5 to 10 years away from reaching that stage.
Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report highlights “the four Nexus of Forces (social, mobile, cloud and information),” which were highly correlated with items that had changed most significantly on the peak portion of the Hype Cycle. Two trends Gartner called out especially as having an impact at earlier stages of the Hype Cycle were digital business and the Internet of Things.
The 2014 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies marks the 20th anniversary of the report.
For more, see this video, which talks about the Hype Cycle as a tool for tracking how innovations and their business impact evolve over time and what is new about the 2014 version.